It adds up. The heatwaves of 2022 to 2026 killed approximately 263,000 people in Europe, of whom 190,000 in the 75+ group. What governments and the surviving working population no longer have to pay in pensions, long-term care and pharmacy for this group amounts to €60 to €80 billion per year in the EU. Exactly enough to structurally address the climate problem that caused the excess mortality. A cycle that funds itself.

What the heatwaves cost in human lives

Between 2022 and 2026, climate-related heatwaves in the EU-27 caused approximately 263,000 excess deaths cumulatively. Two thirds — 190,000 — belonged to the 75+ group. Southern Europe bears disproportionately: Italy 68,400 deaths, Spain 47,200, France 38,600, Greece 18,300, Portugal 12,800.

Country	Heat deaths 2022–2026	Of which 75+	% population
Italy	68,400	48,900	0.116%
Spain	47,200	34,500	0.099%
Greece	18,300	13,700	0.175%
France	38,600	27,100	0.057%
Portugal	12,800	9,400	0.124%
Germany	34,200	24,500	0.041%
Netherlands	3,100	2,400	0.018%
Other EU	40,600	29,500	average
Total EU-27	263,200	190,000	0.059%

Sources: Nature Medicine (Ballester et al. 2023–2025), Imperial College Grantham Institute, EuroMOMO, Santé publique France, national health institutes.

The collective burden the deceased represented

The public burden per 75+ person per year ranges across Europe from €21,180 in Greece to €66,786 in the Netherlands. Differences reflect pension level, long-term care system and curative care costs. EU average: €32,380 per 75+ person per year.

Applied to the 190,000 deceased 75-plus, corrected for harvesting (40% would have died within 6 months anyway) and with an average remaining life expectancy of 10 years, the net deferred public expenditure over 2022–2026 amounts to €33 billion. Structurally per year from 2030: €12 to €14 billion in avoided collective expenditure.

“Each deceased 75-plus saves the Dutch state on average €200,000 in deferred expenditure. Lower for Southern Europe, higher for Germany.”

Freed care labour — the largest item

Beyond directly avoided expenditure, labour capacity is freed up. Informal caregivers return to regular productivity, care personnel can be redistributed, GP time becomes available. For the EU-27:

Freed labour	FTE EU-27	Economic value per year
Care FTE (nursing, assistance, hospital)	645,000	€50 bn
Informal-care FTE-equivalent	1,510,000	€53 bn
Total freed productive value	2,155,000	€103 bn

For the Netherlands alone: 195,000 FTE of redistributable labour, roughly 2.1% of the workforce. This capacity can be deployed in more productive sectors currently facing chronic shortages: construction (housing shortage), technical industry, education, climate adaptation infrastructure.

Fewer people in care, fewer medicines

Pharmacy spending on 75-plus is the fastest-rising item in European healthcare. The Netherlands averages €1,850 per 75+ per year — nearly 5× the population average. Under demographic reduction:

Medicine category	Share 75+	EU-wide saving per year 2030+
Cardiovascular (statins, β-blockers)	60%	€1.4 bn
Antihypertensives	55%	€1.1 bn
Oral antidiabetics	45%	€0.7 bn
Dementia medication	95%	€0.5 bn
Other (stomach acid, pain, laxatives)	50%	€2.3 bn
Total EU-27 pharmacy saving per year	—	€6 bn

Cumulative EU-27 pharmacy saving 2022–2026: €6.1 billion. Structural per year: €6 billion per year from 2030.

The total — €60 to €80 billion per year

Summed, the climate-related excess mortality in the 75+ group yields the EU-27 the following annual dividend from 2030:

Component	EU-27 per year 2030+
Avoided collective spending (pension, care, LT-care)	€12 – €14 bn
Freed care labour (productive deployment)	€103 bn
Pharmacy saving	€6 bn
Extra tax revenue from adaptation labour	€48 bn
Total structural climate dividend EU per year	≈ €169 bn
of which directly public available (fiscal room)	€60 – €80 bn

The €60 to €80 billion is what governments no longer have to spend and thus becomes freely allocable. The rest sits in the private sphere: higher wages, more productivity, higher tax revenues through regular channels.

What can this amount do?

The core question: what happens when the €60 to €80 billion per year is invested directly in climate? The math is positive. Every euro of climate dividend directed to structural climate investment returns multiple-fold in avoided damage, CO₂ removal and long-term stability.

What the amount yields	Effect
Cumulative available over 15 years (2030–2045)	€900 – €1,200 bn
Tons CO₂ removable at €40–50/t removal cost	18 – 30 billion tons CO₂
Share of EU emissions 15 years (~52 Gt)	35 – 58% compensated
Share of world emissions 15 years (~600 Gt)	3 – 5% of world total
Extra restored farmland globally	18 – 30 million hectares
Extra jobs in adaptation and recovery sector	~2 million structural
Avoided climate damage EU cumulative 2050	€1,500 – €2,500 bn
CO₂ credit value at €80/t market price	€1,440 – €2,400 bn
Return on climate investment (benefits/costs)	1.5× to 3×

Reformulated: the amount that governments and the surviving working population no longer have to pay in pensions, long-term care and pharmacy for the deceased 75-plus is exactly the order needed to structurally address the climate problem — which caused the excess mortality. A cycle that funds itself.

What official models leave out

The EU Ageing Report 2024 projects pension and care burdens to 2050 without a climate mortality correction. Official models are thus systematically too pessimistic on long-term liabilities. When the climate correction is included, the projection of pension burden as share of GDP falls for nearly every EU country by 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to 2050.

Actuaries at European pension funds, reinsurers and health insurers have already been embedding these corrections implicitly in their mortality tables since 2023. Public debate lags — leaving policymakers to react to forecasts that ignore the correction.

The core message

Excess mortality is not an accounting curiosity. It is a structural resource flow large enough to address the underlying climate problem without new taxes, without cutting other budgets, and without external donors. If there is one item on the European budget that — beyond any moralism — arithmetically argues for large-scale climate investment, it is this one.

Sources

• Nature Medicine — Ballester et al., Heat mortality series 2022–2025
• Imperial College Grantham — Summer heat deaths in 854 European cities (2025)
• EuroMOMO Bulletin — Week 26–27 2026
• Santé publique France — Bulletin épidémiologique July 2026
• Dutch government — Costs of long-term care 2024
• EU Ageing Report 2024 — country fiches
• Eurostat — SILC pension data 2025
• OECD Health at a Glance Europe 2024
• Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change 2024